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The implementation of GPM is still a few years away, hence it makes sense to design Observing System Simulation Experiments OSSEs using a NATURE run from the ECMWF global data assimilation and our atmospheric model. This fraternal twin would be the high resolution T 256 FSU global spectral model. Datasets on precipitation (initial and predicted) from the NATURE run would be extracted along the designed data orbits of GPM and used to define several initial states for the FSU model. We propose to investigate the impacts of GPM precipitation measurements from such OSSEs. We propose to calibrate the TRMM 3B42 data sets using the greater Asian Monsoon raingauge data sets archived at FSU, and to make use of this modified product for improvements of precipitation forecasts from a suite of models that invoke a downscaling, training and construction of multimodel ensembles. The methods used for our proposed study include statistical quality control and validation of Asian monsoon rain gauge network data sets, downscaling of model rains to mesoscale resolution following our recent work, Krishnamurti et al. (2009 MWR), physical initialization (model nowcasting of observed rains), training and validation of multimodel superensemble. Modified TRMM data sets over land and the TRMM 3B42 over the oceans are parts of these data sets. Given the downscaled and physically initialized rainfall product at mesoscale resolutions it will be possible to explore hydrological applications of the TRMM and our model (assimilated and predicted) products for driving a simple hydrological model at specific locations. We propose to examine the Bangladesh flood applications during late summer months, where the hydrological model will assess the runoff and potential flood areas due to the excessive rains. The significance of this work would be in the advancement of mesoscale precipitation forecast skills (deterministic and probabilistic) for the monsoon belt.
Project PI: Tiruvalam Krishnamurti/Florida State University
Department of Meteorology Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
Phone: (850) 644-2210
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