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Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems, Climate Variability & Change, Water & Energy Cycles

The proposed project will create a decision support system (DSS) tool to evaluate and visualize the impacts of potential future climate and land use changes on runoff and concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and pathogens in Weeks Bay, AL. The bay is a National Estuarine Research Reserve that has long-term sets of in situ data. Detailed watershed and hydrological models will provide gridded daily runoff, water properties, and TSS for multiple land use and climate scenarios. Model output will be correlated with existing in situ and remote sensing data using multivariate regression and spatial analysis. A statistical model will be built to describe the relationships between water properties and watershed factors. Finally, a DSS visualization tool based on the statistical model will be developed for evaluating the impacts of potential changes in land use and climate change on concentrations in Weeks Bay of TSS, nutrients, E. coli, and fecal coliform. To evaluate the performance of the DSS tool for future predictions, additional watershed and hydrological modeling with future land use and climate scenarios will be conducted for comparison. The proposed DSS tool will allow end users to evaluate a variety of future scenarios, including changes in land use, temperatures, and precipitation, and to understand potential impacts on nutrient and pathogen concentrations. Because it will provide end users with a tool to describe, predict, and prevent the causes of problems such as pathogen pollution, algal blooms, and fish kills, the proposed activity is responsive to the Ecological Forecasting and Public Health application areas. The tool will provide new decision support for planning, anticipating vulnerabilities, and understanding uncertainty associated with future scenarios. End users in Weeks Bay will be involved throughout the proposed activity to ensure that the tool is framed to best address their needs.

PI: Glynis Lough/Battelle

Battelle Memorial Institute 505 King Avenue Columbus, Ohio 43201-2693

Email: loughg@battelle.org

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Started: Sep 27, 2010

Last Activity: Dec 07, 2010

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