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Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems, Climate Variability & Change

The forest and wetlands ecosystems along the coasts of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, trying to recover from the devastations of hurricane Katrina, are faced with increased stress from the changing climate. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, the forest management specialists are in need of relevant regional future climate projections at spatial scales that are meaningful. Climate models and global reanalysis datasets have provided long term climate simulations and reanalysis of past, present, and future climate change. The available IPCC AR4 climate assessments are at spatial scales that are too coarse for the decision making needs of the Gulf Coast. Hence, we propose to dynamically downscale selected IPCC AR4 simulations for regional climate projections. We will incorporate the downscaled scenarios into LANDIS, a Decision Support Tool (DST) for forest ecosystems management. Our approach involves: (a) dynamically downscaling of the IPCC AR4 climate projections by the global scale NASA GISS Atmosphere-Ocean Model (AOM) and the continental scale simulations from the North American Regional Climate Assessment Program (NARCAP) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to 10x10 km2 resolutions; (b) producing consistent land surface states and fluxes using the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at 1x1 km2 resolutions; (c) simulating forests ecosystem changes under the projected regional climate using LANDIS; (d) generating and evaluating a suite of hypothetical forest management decisions for at least two IPCC emission scenarios; and (e) incorporate our results and products into the NOAA Ecosystems Data Assembly Center (EDAC) in order to make them available to a broader community stakeholders in the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA). The proposed study directly supports to two application areas of NASA ASP, namely ecological forecasting and climate. The focus of this study addresses the restoration and conservation of coastal wetlands and estuarine ecosystems priority issues identified by the (GOMA).

Project PI: Xingang Fan/Mississippi State University

Mississippi State University 610 Allen Hall Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA

Phone:(662) 325-8429

Email: fan@gri.msstate.edu

http://www.hpc.msstate.edu/directory/information.php?eid=1847

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Started: Sep 27, 2010

Last Activity: Jan 04, 2011

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