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Climate Variability & Change

We propose to (1) incorporate projections of the effects of climate change on temperature, humidity, wind speed and water supplies into electric distribution and utility planning, and (2) to quantify the joint air quality and climate impacts of potential changes in transportation sector emissions. Projections of the evolution of atmospheric composition and the resulting climate change will use the high-resolution global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) driven by output from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global composition and climate model’s IPCC AR5 simulations. For climate and energy, we will use model output together with end users to improve long-range load forecasting and energy distribution and generation planning. We bring GISS expertise in large-scale climate dynamics together with the high-resolution simulations driven by state-of-the-art climate modeling. For transportation, we will calculate the influence of transportation sector emissions on climate and surface pollutants. Analyses in collaboration with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) will form part of an integrated examination of the relative technology costs and economic, health and climate benefits of potential policies in a changing climate. Global climate fields will also be provided to the EPA, with whom we will collaborate on assessment of climate change impacts on the US and characterization of uncertainty in the climate and energy results. The proposal relates to the Climate and Energy and Climate Policies portions of the Climate Priority Area. Simulations in part 1 will form the control for part 2, while simulations in part 2 will help characterize the sensitivity of the climate projections, especially precipitation, to variations in future atmospheric composition. The proposal meets NASA’s objective to expand and accelerate the realization of societal benefits from Earth system science by bringing climate modeling results to finer spatial scales and providing those results to end users.

Project PI: Drew Shindell/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2880 Broadway New York, NY 10025 USA

Phone: (212) 678-5605

Email: Drew.T.Shindell@nasa.gov

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/dshindell.html

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Started: Sep 27, 2010

Last Activity: Dec 16, 2010

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