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Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems

We propose an analysis of the carbon fluxes and storage by synthesizing observations of weather, surface spectra, and high-resolution land-cover, and atmospheric CO2 with a suite of mechanistic models. The analysis will be performed globally, but many of the data products we propose to use are available only over the contiguous USA, so the quality of the estimation will be enhanced here and will contribute to NACP synthesis and integration. The synthesis of these data products will result in (1) global maps of time-varying sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2, wood biomass and soil carbon that are consistent with many kinds of observations; and (2) a self-consistent process-based model of these sources and sinks that can be extrapolated beyond this region of high data density. We have developed a robust data assimilation system (the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter, MLEF) that can efficiently process very large volumes of data into a complex and nonlinear forward model. We have tested the system by assimilating weather and CO2 data into SiB-CASA, a global model of the interactions between ecosystems and the climate. The model has been updated to include carbon allocation, storage, and biogeochemical cycling through multiple ecosystem pools. Other recent improvements include explicit treatment of crops, high-resolution fossil fuel emissions estimates, and a prognostic phenology algorithm derived by assimilating 8 years of global MODIS data. The model simulates fluxes that result from both short-term (sub-diurnal physiology to seasonal phenology) and long-term (disturbance, succession, land management) processes, predicting carbon pools as well as hourly fluxes and high- frequency variations in atmospheric CO2.
The research will address Subelement 3 (Synthesis and Integration), and is a "successor proposal" to our 2004-2006 project that intends to provide continental synthesis for NACP.

Project PI: Scott Denning/Colorado State University

Department of Atmospheric Science 1371 Campus Delivery Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371

Phone: (970) 491-6936

Fax: (970) 491-8449

Email: denning @atmos.colostate.edu

http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/faculty/denning.php

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Started: Sep 02, 2010

Last Activity: Feb 09, 2011

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