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Water & Energy Cycles

This proposal focuses on the science question: How are the characteristics of global precipitation changing in terms of means, variations and extremes, and what is the confidence in our conclusions? Important characteristics of global precipitation (including global and regional means, extremes, variations and trends, and the confidence limits thereof) will be determined by extending, improving and analyzing the 29+ year standard merged precipitation analyses of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of the WCRP/GEWEX and other shorter, high quality data sets such as from TRMM. Specifically, this project will: 1) establish the climatology of global precipitation, the mean spatial and seasonal variations, and inter-annual variations, and the uncertainty of these estimates; 2) examine inter-decadal changes and recent (30-year) trends in precipitation (global and regional) and relate these to large-scale forcing (e.g., ENSO, NAO and volcano/aerosol impacts) and variations and trends in surface temperature; 3) develop a climatology of precipitation extremes (and time history of such); and 4) continue to produce, monitor, validate and improve the monthly global, merged GPCP analyses. This project will also actively contribute to the integrated NEWS effort to analyze the full global water cycle as a whole, examining all the relevant observational global data sets (e.g., ocean evaporation, clouds, water vapor, etc.), in conjunction with other investigators, to identify inconsistencies, artifacts and limitations in the data sets and better understand both the means and variations in all the water cycle components. As part of this effort we will derive best estimates of precipitation and confidence limits so that overall water (and energy) balances can be derived.

Project PI: Robert Adler/University of Maryland College Park

Code 912 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

Phone: (301)614-6290

Fax: (301)614-5484

Email: robert.f.adler@nasa.gov

http://wgdma.giss.nasa.gov/members.html

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Mar 17, 2011

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