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Climate Variability & Change, Weather

We propose a project focused on the simulation of intraseasonal oscillations and tropical cyclone (TC)-like vortices in the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model. We will first assess the simulations of these phenomena in the model and compare them to observations (including the MERRA reanalysis as well as NASA satellite observations) using state-of-the-art metrics. We will then perform a set of sensitivity experiments in which we will attempt to improve the simulation of intraseasonal variability, especially the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), but also the northward-propagating rainbands which modulate the Asian monsoon. We will do this by making modifications to the physical parameterizations of the kind which have been shown to be effective in a number of other models, but have not yet been systematically tried in the GISS model with an eye on MJO simulation. The best model found by those experiments will be used in another set of sensitivity experiments aimed at determining the importance of various physical mechanisms to the occurrence and properties of the intraseasonal oscillations and TC-like vortices in the model. The importance of wind-evaporation feedback, cloud-radiative feedback, and frictional convergence feedback will be assessed. Finally, the relationship between the MJO and TCs and the simulated changes in TCs under projected climate change will be examined, and the analyses necessary to include the GISS model in recently proposed intercomparison of TCs in global models will be carried out. The project will increase NASA's capacity to address tropical weather and climate phenomena by systematically assessing and, hopefully, improving the capacity of the GISS model to simulate two of the most important such phenomena, intraseasonal oscillations and TCs.

Project PI: Adam Sobel/Columbia University

Depatment of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics S.W. Mudd, Room 217 Columbia University 500 West 120th Street New York, NY 10027

Phone: 212-854-6587

Fax: 212-854-8257

Email:ahs129@columbia.edu

http://www.columbia.edu/~ahs129/home.html

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Dec 15, 2010

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