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Weather

The last decade has seen a general increase in tropical storm activity punctuated by substantial year-to-year changes ranging from the record breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season to the below normal tropical storm season of 2007. Efforts to improve predictions of such changes (e.g., in frequency, tracks, and intensity) requires that we better understand and are able to simulate the relevant dynamical interactions between tropical storms and the leading modes of climate variability (e.g., the MJO and AMO) as well as how these interactions might be changing in a warming climate. The proposed work will evaluate, improve and use high-resolution climate models to simulate and predict subseasonal to interannual and longer-term changes in tropical storm characteristics. Part I of the proposed work consists of a number of AGCM experiments that address the sensitivity to resolution, and the convective and boundary layer schemes. Part II consists of a series of mechanistic experiments designed to isolate the physical mechanisms controlling tropical storm characteristics associated with the leading SST anomalies in the different ocean basins, and the MJO. Part III involves a set of hindcast experiments designed to assess the baseline skill of the GEOS-5 coupled model in predicting storm activity on subseasonal to seasonal time scales. The work is aimed at advancing the capabilities of NASA’s GEOS-5 model for use in climate/weather studies, but includes comparisons with the GFDL, NCEP and NCAR models to help assess model dependence. The work will take advantage of the new MERRA reanalysis, as well as related data assimilation tools (e.g., a replay methodology) that were developed in the GMAO, to validate and constrain the model. A number of NASA/EOS satellite products (including Aqua and Cloudsat) will be used for validation - a task facilitated by taking advantage of web-based hurricane portals developed at JPL and GSFC.

Project PI: Siegfried Schubert/ NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Code 611,Goddard Space Flight Center/ NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771

Phone: (301)614-6145

Email: siegfried.d.schubert@nasa.gov

http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/directory/get_person.php?eosDirID=eos0001479

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Dec 15, 2010

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