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Atmospheric Composition, Climate Variability & Change

We propose a program of research to test the ability of the GMI model for stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry and transport (the Combo model) to reproduce past observations of tropospheric ozone and related species since 1990. This work addresses key questions in the ROSES-2008 Announcement NNH08ZDA001N: (1) how is the Earth system changing and (2) what are the forcing mechanisms driving the observed change? Our first task will be to evaluate Combo model simulations for 2004 onwards driven by meteorological fields from the GEOS-5 data assimilation system (DAS), using in-situ and satellite data. We propose to develop tests of convection and large scale ascent in the upper troposphere using MLS data for carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone along with MOPITT and TES data in the lower troposphere. We will also evaluate simulations driven by the GEOS-5 general circulation model (GCM). We propose to evaluate Combo model hindcast simulations driven by GEOS-5 MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) meteorological fields from 1990 onwards. The evaluation will use ozonesonde data, MOZAIC aircraft data, surface CO and ozone data, tropospheric ozone columns derived from TOMS data and from OMI-MLS, data from SAGE II, MOPITT, TES, MLS, and trends in tropospheric NO2 columns from GOME/SCIAMACHY and OMI. A key goal of our work is to determine causes of interannual variability and trends in tropospheric composition. We will use a series of sensitivity simulations to: (1) quantify the influence of changes in ozone in the lower stratosphere on tropospheric ozone in the northern extratropics in the 1990s; (2) quantify the effects of rapidly increasing Asian emissions and slowly decreasing North American and European emissions on tropospheric ozone and its precursors; and (3) quantify to role of large interannual variability in biomass burning emissions in the tropics and boreal regions on tropospheric ozone.

Project PI: Jennifer Logan/Harvard University

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Dec 15, 2010

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