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Atmospheric Composition, Climate Variability & Change

Asia will emerge over the next decades as the largest anthropogenic contributor to the global budgets of a number of environmentally and radiatively important trace gases. Long-range transport of pollution has implications for both global atmospheric chemistry and for regional environmental impacts on receptor continents. On the other hand, climate change can influence both transport of ozone (and its precursors) by affecting meteorology and ozone formation by affecting tropospheric chemistry. Understanding how changes in climate and in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors affect the meteorological and chemical processes associated with the Asian continental outflow as well as the long-range transport of this outflow is crucial for future projections of Asian influence on global tropospheric chemistry, oxidation capacity, hemispheric transport of pollution and U.S. surface air quality, and for informing international environmental policies. We propose a 4-year project to examine the effects on Asian pollution outflow and long-range transport from IPCC A1B 2000-2050 global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM) driven by meteorological fields from the NOAA GFDL’s new atmospheric general circulation model (AM3). The effects from climate change and from changes in anthropogenic emission for ozone precursors will be studied separately and then together through an ensemble of sensitivity simulations. Our research objectives are: (1) To improve our understanding of uncertainties in model predictions due to the use of different input meteorological fields by incorporating output from the GFDL AM3 model into the GMI modeling framework; • To assess the AM3 meteorological fields through intercomparison with those from other major global climate models or data assimilation systems; • To synergistically improve and develop the representation of precipitation scavenging in AM3 and GMI using constraints from radionuclide tracers. (2) To understand and quantify the effects of global change on transport pathways and chemical outflow for Asian pollution to the western Pacific, low latitude easterly outflow to the Middle East and to the UT/LS via vertical transport over the Tibetan Plateau; (3) To assess and quantify the effects of changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions on the source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution. This project will make available to GMI science team members a new set of meteorological fields for sensitivity studies and provide important insights into the strength and weakness of the AM3 meteorology. Meteorological fields representative of 2050 (A1B scenario) simulated with AM3 may also be used by GMI science team members to study the sensitivities of atmospheric composition to climate change. Our work will result in an improved and more self-consistent representation in large-scale models of precipitation scavenging of soluble gases and aerosols important for tropospheric chemistry, directly answering a recent call made by GMI to the scientific community. This project will allow us to contribute GMI/AM3 modeling results to the HTAP and AC&C; activities for model intercomparison in the context of the impact of global change on intercontinental transport of pollution. This proposal specifically answers this solicitation that seeks “investigations that contribute to a synergistic interaction between GMI and general circulation models (GCMs)” and “fully coupled chemistry climate models (CCMs)”. Our proposed research directly address NASA’s science questions “How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes” and “How will the Earth System change in the future” and meets NASA’s research objective to “understand and improve predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition”.

Project PI: Hongyu Liu/National Institute of Aerospace

NASA Langley Research Center Mail Stop 401B, Hampton, VA 23681

Phone: (757) 864-3191

Fax: (757) 864-6326

Email: hongyu.liu-1@nasa.gov

http://research.nianet.org/~hyl/  

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Mar 17, 2011

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