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Atmospheric Composition

We propose to use the state-of-the-art, NASA GEOS chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to explore mid-century air quality, particularly surface ozone. First, we will work to improve the simulation of surface ozone in global models, such as CCMs and chemistry and transport models (CTMs), using both the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM and the GFDL AM2-Chem CCM. A recent global model intercomparison showed that most models significantly over-predict surface ozone in the eastern United States (>15 ppbv) and Japan, but that the bias is less for Europe. We propose the following tasks to reduce the high bias thereby increasing confidence in our understanding of the processes controlling surface ozone: A) We will explore the benefit of a new parameterization of sub-grid scale variability analogous to the mosaic technique used in land surface models. The technique will be applied to ozone production and transport, as well as to biogenic emissions of hydrocarbons and their transport; B) We will investigate the inter-annual variability of the ozone bias in the GMI CTM and the GFDL AM2-Chem CCM for 1990-present in conjunction with observations of meteorology, aerosols, and trace gases; C) We will examine the sensitivity of model ozone to 1) the meteorological fields which drive transport, and to 2) the parameterizations of chemistry, aerosol impacts, and boundary layer turbulence. We will provide recommendations for reducing the ozone bias while maintaining computational efficiency. Second, we will use the GEOS CCM to simulate present and mid-century (2041-2050) air quality, focusing on changes in surface ozone in major industrialized regions, emerging industrial areas, and regions impacted by regional biomass burning. We will: A) perform sensitivity tests to deconvolve the impact of expected changes in trace gas and aerosol emissions from the impact of changes in meteorology associated with climate change; and B) simulate several emissions scenarios (e.g., IPCC) for greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone precursors to define a likely range for possible changes in air quality by mid-century.

Project PI: Bryan Duncan

Code 613.3 NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

Phone: (301) 614-5994

Fax: (301) 614-5903

Email: Bryan.N.Duncan@nasa.gov

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Mar 17, 2011

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