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Atmospheric Composition, Climate Variability & Change

We propose a hindcast investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term satellite records. We will focus on a 30-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2010, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and intensive field experiments have become available. With an overall goal of understanding the relationships between aerosol emission, concentration, optical thickness, and radiative effects, we will analyze (1) the long-term global and regional aerosol trends and their relationship to the changes of aerosol and precursor emissions, (2) the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface, (known as “dimming” or “brightening”) at different regions of the world, and (3) the intercontinental source-receptor relationships controlled by emission, transport pathway, and atmospheric variability. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, which involves a time-varying, comprehensive global emission dataset that we put together in our previous investigations and will be improved/extended in this project. This global emission dataset includes emissions of aerosols and their precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions, and other sources from 1980 to the present. The dust uplifting probability will be reconstructed to account for the seasonal and interannual variations of vegetation coverage. The new multiyear meteorological reanalysis products, the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), will drive the GOCART aerosol simulations. We will couple the GOCART aerosol and MERRA meteorological fields with the Goddard radiative transfer model to calculate the solar radiation at the surface and associated aerosol forcing. Model output will be extensively evaluated with observations from different platforms from space to surface. We will conduct a series of model experiments to assess the regional processes and the intercontinental source-receptor relationships that are regulated by both emission magnitudes and the weather/climate variability.

Project PI: Mian Chin/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Code 613.3, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, U.S.A

Phone: (301)614-6007

Fax: (301)614-5903

Email:  Mian.Chin@nasa.gov

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/

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Started: Aug 10, 2010

Last Activity: Dec 15, 2010

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